What If?

9/11 has come and gone, the United States does not engage Afghanistan and Iraq, other than with diplomacy, and things have been quiet for a while.

Quiet but not still, the Islamists have found our weakness, our aversion to direct action, the importance that we put on being liked more than doing what is hard to make us safe. They have been emboldened, gained confidence; sure they have had to sacrifice a few cells to make the West believe that progress is being made but none of real importance. Alliances have been made with unlikely partners and collaborators, all with their own agendas, some economic, some religious but all about gaining power and diminishing the United States.

U.N. sanctions continue to be hollow and unenforced, the saber rattling of the West unconvincing. We see the strategy of hope becoming desperate, trying to convince ourselves that we are not in danger. The talking heads on our televisions lambaste President Bush for his weakness, why did he not do something? Why could he not foresee that by trying to negotiate with terrorists has never worked, attacks continue, human rights continue to be violated throughout the Middle East, more countries are secretly funding attacks on Israel because they do not believe that the United States has the will to intervene.

It happens on a Sunday in the fall, chosen because it will mean the greatest amount of people around the televisions of America,it could be the Mall of America is blown up or a refinery in Houston blows-up and spreads toxic gas and rains fire over a city or maybe a dirty bomb goes of in the harbor of NYC before it even reaches the customs dock. Tens of thousands are killed, many more wounded and then it begins……..

Americans are tired of being scared, they have lived in fear for years, and they demand that their politicians do something, somebody has to be punished. Nuance and reason are set aside for speed of reprisals, innocent law abiding Muslims are arrested throughout the United States, we demand that a price be extracted for the film we see nightly of the flames, the death, the radioactive debris. The origin of the explosives, the ship, the terrorists and even the fanatics claiming responsibility are gleaned.

The conflagration begins we extract a toll, Russia uses this as an excuse to wipe out Chechnian rebels, Israel projects force against all those who have been supplying those who attack at its borders, France detains and begins deportation of Algerian immigrants who have rioted. It continues, there is no easy stopping point, China and North Korea use the conflict as an opportunity to sell arms to Arab Countries in exchange for oil, the West boycotts Chinese goods and the Chinese use the opportunity to attack Taiwan while the West is engaged and North Korea attacks South Korea. The West freezes Middle Eastern bank accounts and holdings and threatens to sink any ships carrying oil to China.



Pipelines are blown, Africans are starving because aid has been cut off, farmers cannot afford the oil to run their machinery.

Wouldn’t have happened that way you say? Prove it. Not easy is it, the reason being that you cannot prove a negative. Just like you cannot prove what our engagement in the Middle East has prevented. We know that we have not had an attack on our soil since, that we have focused the Islamists area of operation to Iraq and Afghanistan. We have lost brave men and women in this fight but we tend to focus on the lives lost from our bravest and not the lives that they have saved by doing so.

If you truly take the time to understand the history of the world that we inhabit you support the idea of what we are trying to do in the Middle East. The only way to stabilize the Middle East for the future of all is to establish the rights of all and to create a Middle Class with something to loose. Democracy in a Muslim Country can work; Turkey is a perfect example of that. Most think Democracy is easy and forget that the United States Constitution was not written until 1787 and not ratified until a year later, a full 12 years after the Declaration of Independence. We enjoy the longest standing form of government in the World and yet we expect an EZ Bake Oven solution to the problems that we face in a week to 10 days.
I may not have the perfect answer for what ails our world but I definitively know what the answers are not. Educate your opinion, don’t take your foreign policy leads from singers and actors that, while good at their craft, have little to offer in informed opinion or the taking heads that pander to them in hopes of sitting at the cool table.